September 12 ® The likelihood of recession has grown to 30% and with it the risk of further declines in residential construction, says the chief economist for Reed Construction Data (RCD).
"The poor economic numbers have led us to lower our baseline forecast and to increase our subjective probability of recession to 30%," states RCD's Bernard M. Markstein.
RCD's baseline economic forecast calls for residential construction to grow 6.8% in 2012 and for residential improvements to increase 8.7%. In contrast, the updated recession forecast pegs residential building declining 4.1% and residential improvements shrinking by 4.3%.
Reed's recession forecast calls for non-residential building to grow by just 0.9% next year versus 3.3% growth in the baseline forecast.
Overall, the baseline forecast calls for 1.6% grown in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013. The recession forecast sees overall spending shrinking by 1.6% next year with 2% year-over-year growth in 2013.